Lower 48 Activity Update
Weekly AFE Leaks Summary
This insight is planned as a weekly roundup of activity from the Baker Hughes Rig Report, current prices/futures, and news.
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- Fancy new website replaced the original AFE Leaks link, which pointed to the blog. Blog is now at afeleaks.substack.com.
- Sample Power BI to showcase the API and capabilities is out. Link is here.
- Began running monthly well data update this week in conjunction with launch of Colorado AFE data. Initial dataset is focused on just over 700 AFE’s from 2024-2025 range with full cost breakdowns. Plan to have data out over the weekend. Look for Wyoming, Utah, and North Dakota data to be added in the coming weeks.
- Working through supplier-level cost dataset. Would like to get enough scale before adding to the product list, but it is progressing.
- Insights took a week off with the data-work, but data needs come first in my mind. I’ve been going through the most recent AFE’s to profile cost change pre/post tariff, so will have something out on that soon. U-turn work progressing, but would like to have a bigger dataset before writing something on it.
AFE Leaks focuses on providing detailed AFE/actual development costs across the Lower 48, with capex data across 93,000+ wells.
Activity Update
- Earnings kicked off this week, with EQT, Range, CNX, and Matador announcing results. Starts to ramp up even harder next week.
CNX earnings were not received well (Share Price Indexed to start of week) after reporting a large miss on EPS.
- EQT made news by bolting on ~90,000 acres from Blackstone-backed Olympus Energy for $1.8 bn. Olympus was looking for ~$2 bn on a sale, and got close. For those familiar, this is the old Huntley & Huntley asset base, which is edgy Marcellus acreage. I suppose there is a bit of scarcity premium out in Appalachia too.
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Though the share price hasn’t done much, Matador did the prudent thing and signaled a decline in activity with prices going lower. Expect others to follow.
X2 got a $500 mn commitment from Encap, among others, to try and recreate their magic from the XCL Uinta sale to SM, though the announcement appears to be basin-agnostic.
Prices
Prices of both relatively flat this week, though Henry Hub did dip below $3.
Rigs
Texas, and particularly the Permian, dominates the rig count. Add in the bordering states, and this broader region represents roughly ~80% of L48 rigs.
Permian was flat this week, and overall rig count actually increased again. Rigs lag price, so expect a drop eventually.
| Basin | Rig Count | Cumulative % | Week | Year | 5-Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 561 | 100% | ▲︎ 2 | ▼︎ 25 | ▲︎ 116 |
| Delaware | 165 | 29.4% | – | ▼︎ 12 | ▲︎ 29 |
| Midland | 104 | 48.0% | – | ▼︎ 20 | ▲︎ 2 |
| Eagle Ford | 47 | 56.3% | – | ▼︎ 5 | ▲︎ 13 |
| Williston | 32 | 62.0% | – | ▼︎ 1 | ▲︎ 5 |
| Haynesville | 31 | 67.6% | ▲︎ 1 | ▼︎ 3 | ▼︎ 2 |
| Marcellus | 22 | 71.5% | – | ▼︎ 7 | ▼︎ 9 |
| Directional | 21 | 75.2% | ▲︎ 1 | ▲︎ 1 | ▲︎ 12 |
| SCOOP | 17 | 78.3% | ▼︎ 4 | ▲︎ 2 | ▲︎ 10 |
| Powder River | 15 | 80.9% | – | ▲︎ 7 | ▲︎ 10 |
| Vertical | 14 | 83.4% | ▲︎ 1 | ▲︎ 2 | ▲︎ 2 |
| Granite Wash | 12 | 85.6% | ▲︎ 1 | ▲︎ 6 | ▲︎ 10 |
| Utica | 11 | 87.5% | – | – | ▲︎ 2 |
| Permian - Other | 10 | 89.3% | – | ▲︎ 4 | ▲︎ 9 |
| STACK | 10 | 91.1% | – | ▼︎ 1 | ▲︎ 4 |
| Oklahoma Other | 9 | 92.7% | ▲︎ 1 | ▲︎ 3 | ▲︎ 5 |
| Uinta | 9 | 94.3% | – | ▼︎ 1 | ▲︎ 5 |
| Texas Other | 7 | 95.5% | ▼︎ 1 | – | ▲︎ 4 |
| DJ-Niobrara | 6 | 96.6% | – | ▼︎ 5 | ▼︎ 9 |
| Anadarko | 3 | 97.1% | ▲︎ 2 | ▲︎ 1 | ▲︎ 2 |
| East Texas Eagle Ford | 3 | 97.7% | – | ▲︎ 1 | ▲︎ 2 |
| San Juan | 3 | 98.2% | – | – | ▲︎ 3 |
| Waynesville | 3 | 98.8% | – | ▲︎ 1 | ▲︎ 3 |
| Arkoma | 2 | 99.1% | ▲︎ 1 | ▲︎ 1 | ▲︎ 2 |
| Ardmore | 1 | 99.3% | – | ▲︎ 1 | ▲︎ 1 |
| Barnett | 1 | 99.5% | – | ▲︎ 1 | ▼︎ 1 |
| California Other | 1 | 99.6% | – | – | – |
| Green River | 1 | 99.8% | – | ▲︎ 1 | ▲︎ 1 |
| Michigan Other | 1 | 100.0% | – | ▲︎ 1 | ▲︎ 1 |
| Colorado Other | 0 | 100.0% | – | ▼︎ 1 | – |
| Mississippian | 0 | 100.0% | – | ▼︎ 1 | – |
| Utah Other | 0 | 100.0% | ▼︎ 1 | ▼︎ 1 | – |
Well of the week
Today’s well is OXY’s Trinity Fed 3770-7-N1XH, a 2-mile Niobrara well in Converse County. Current estimate, as of January 2025, is ~12 million. The well has yet to be spud, though I’d be interested to see how this well compares with more recent estimates post-tariff announcement.
Trinity Fed 3770-7-N1XH ~$12 Million AFE for a 2-mile lateral at ~10,000 ft.
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